St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

584
FXUS63 KEAX 302332
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

...00z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some sprinkles to light showers linger for the next couple
  hours. Otherwise, windy and much cooler.

- Wind gusts 20-25 MPH continue through the afternoon and
  return overnight.

- Another windy day in store Tuesday with 35-40 MPH gusts possible.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible Tuesday
  night into Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail are the
  primary hazards once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Decaying showers along a convergent boundary just north of the KC
metro looks to bring some scattered sprinkles to light showers
across NW MO for the next couple of hours. The parent storm system
facilitating this boundary continues to steadily move eastward
bringing strong to severe thunderstorms to the lower OH River Valley
and the southern Great Lakes. NW winds on the back side of this
system remain gusty as cold air advection continues to advance into
the region. Breaks in the clouds have enabled a little bit of
heating nudging temperatures into the 50s for those south of I-70.
Gusty winds approached 20-25 mph continue until sunset; however,
they look to return through the night as accelerated 850mb flow
mixes down during the overnight period.

The system continues its eastward trend Monday. Gusty northerly
winds remain through the morning hours; gradually dissipating as the
system moves further east. As the winds calm, clouds decrease
returning sunshine for Monday afternoon. This combined with toned
down CAA enables highs to reach into the mid-50s.

As Monday becomes Tuesday, another shortwave and a strong axis of
southerly flow quickly turn CAA into WAA. Temperatures Tuesday vault
up to near 70 degrees. Unfortunately, the trade off for these warm
temperatures is another day of near advisory level winds. Gusts are
expected to approach 30-40 MPH throughout Tuesday afternoon.
Moisture also latches on to this conveyor rocketing dew points from
the mid-30s to potentially the 60s Tuesday night. This combined with
a 500mb jet streak traversing the Rockies and a deepening mid-level
lee trough set up our next chance for showers and thunderstorms late
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The large flux of warm
air and dew points during the afternoon and evening hours
destabilizes the atmosphere across eastern KS and moves into western
MO during the overnight. The environmental setup ahead of this storm
complex will be quite interesting and play a critical role in
determining strong to severe storm chances. Guidance suggests the
potential for nocturnal cooling ahead of the convective environment
creating a significant CAP; however, as the storms move into the
region, the warm air and moisture advection essentially erode that
CAP. This sets up a scenario where storms initially start out as
surface based across eastern KS, become elevated as they approach
the MO/KS border, then become surfaced based again before sunrise.
All of this will depend on where storms are located relative to time
and the environment. More high resolution CAM guidance will come
into range over the next 24 hours to lower potential uncertainties.
There is confidence in the potential for damaging winds and large
hail regardless if storms become elevated or not. In a setup
somewhat similar in scope and time to last night, it is important to
ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings and
information during the overnight.

After this system rolls by Wednesday morning, WAA continues
elevating highs across the area into the 70s with portions of
central MO reaching the high 70s to near 80 degrees. Surface high
pressure build in from the north which unfortunately pushes
temperatures back down. A few showers are possible Thursday as this
colder air mass works its way into the region. Highs dip back into
the upper 50s to low 60s. A slow progressing low strolls across the
SW CONUS ejecting multiple shortwaves across the southern CONUS
creating a stream of precipitation chances throughout the lower MS
Valley. Currently guidance looks to keep this area of precipitation
just to our south, but deviations in later model runs could drag
this are of precipitation northward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

Primary concern within the TAF period will be how ceilings
evolve and how long they linger into the morning. Have opted to
not drop ceilings as low as some guidance might suggest, so have
kept high MVFR this evening through the overnight. Clearing
comes generally from the north during the morning hours. May see
occasional gusts to around 20kts through the overnight as well
with decent pressure gradient remaining in place. Otherwise,
once VFR settles in, will prevail remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Curtis