St. Joseph, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

067
FXUS63 KEAX 060513
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1213 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...Updated 06z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered Thunderstorms Through Sunday...isolated downbursts
  possible.

- Seasonably Warm and Humid Through This Week

- Additional storms expected Monday night into Tuesday...severe
  weather threat appears low at this time.

- Additional storms expected Friday night into
  Saturday...severe weather may be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have impacted much of the
western CWA this morning while this afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms have developed over the eastern CWA where temperatures
have risen to the upper 80s to 90 degrees. This is our first round
of showers and thunderstorms for today. The second round will come
this evening into tonight as a weak cold front sags into the area. A
few localized strong storms capable of downburst winds cannot be
ruled out which is evidenced by inverted-V soundings however DCAPE
values due not appear to be strong and overall shear is weak.
Consequently, the severe threat is very low with storms this evening
into tonight. The sagging cold front is expected to stall in the
vicinity of the I-70 corridor by tomorrow morning. This will become
the focus for renewed convection late tomorrow morning into the
afternoon as models depict a subtle upper level shortwave moving
through the region. Model soundings again reveal an inverted-V
sounding for tomorrow with MUCAPE values between 2000-3000J/Kg
however, shear remains extremely weak mitigating any more than a
isolated downburst scenario. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid
80s across the north behind the front to near 90 across the southern
CWA ahead of the front. This front is progged to remain across the
southern CWA tomorrow night into Monday continuing the slight chance
(15%-25%) for storms along and south of Highway 50. Highs Monday are
again expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90.

For Monday night into Tuesday models are hinting at a mid-lvel
shortwave that is expected to move through the region on quasi-zonal
flow. The NAM is faster and further south with this feature than
it`s GFS counter part and produces an MCS over the area Monday
night. The GFS is further north, slower, and weaker with this
feature which would keep the bulk of the storm activity north of the
area. This feature will need to be monitored for severe potential
Monday night into Tuesday. Another mid-level trough will move
through the region on the day Tuesday into Tuesday night forcing a
cold front into the area and bringing additional rounds of showers
and thunderstorms. Despite the NBM holding onto slight chance and
chance PoPs (20%-40%) for Wednesday models are suggesting surface
high pressure building into the area providing for dry conditions.
Dry conditions look to then persist through Friday before a strong
upper level trough moves into the northern Plains Friday night into
Saturday which will bring the next potential for strong to severe
storms. Temperatures through the work week are expected to remain
near seasonal normals with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Cold front is moving across Missouri with isolated
showers/storms developing along it. It is possible for a storm
move over the KC Metro terminals for the first hour or so of
the 06z TAFs. After 07z, the front should clear the KC metro TAF
sites, with isolated development still possible from central
Missouri and eastward. More development is possible east of
Kansas City Sunday afternoon and evening. Ceilings on the
backside of the of the cold front should remain VFR, with winds
generally out of the northwest, these might start to back later
through the afternoon out of the southwest depending, on how
quickly the cold front moves eastward and the next weak system
moves through.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Krull